Tournament

Think you know severe weather?

Think you've got what it takes to be the best?

Now is the chance to find out! The Armchair Forecaster Tournament is a free-to-play competition open to anyone and everyone to see who can consistently produce the best severe weather forecasts across the United States. The task is simple: create daily forecasts for tornadoes, severe hail, and severe winds, accumulate points, and climb the rankings to be the best.

How to Play

New to Armchair Forecaster? Follow these steps:
1) Create a profile
2) Read our user agreement
3) Peruse the user guide
4) Start forecasting!
5) Submit at least 30 forecasts during the tournament period.

Already a registered forecaster? No additional action is needed - you're automatically entered into the tournament. Simply keep forecasting! Details regarding the scoring system can be found in the user guide.

Rankings and Jerseys

Forecaster rankings are deteremined by comparing accumulated daily scores during the tournament period. Taking after the famous bicycle race, the Tour de France, jerseys are awarded to forecasters at the top of the leaderboard to signify their superior forecsting skill during the tournament period. Jerseys are denoted on the leaderboard as well as on the leader's profile page. It is possible for one forecaster to hold multiple jerseys at one time. A breakdown of the jerseys is shown below:

Yellow Jersey: Overall Leader (highest cumulative score)
Red Jersey: Highest tornado cumulative score
Green Jersey: Highest hail cumulative score
Blue Jersey: Highest wind cumulative score
Purple Jersey: Highest daily score

Whoever is wearing the yellow jersey at the end of the tournament period and has submitted at least 30 forecasts during the tournament period is declared the winner. In the event of a tie for the yellow jersey, the winner will be decided by comparing rankings in each individual hazard. For example, if Foreaster 1 and Forecaster 2 are tied for the Yellow Jersey, and Forecaster 1 is also wearing the Red Jersey while Forecaster 2 is not wearing any other jersey, then Forecaster 1 is the winner. If neither forecaster is wearing an additional jersey, then the forecaster who ranks higher in two of the three individual hazards will be declared the winner. If a tie persists, the forecaster with the highest daily score on the final day of the tournament (5/31/24) will be declared the winner. If a tie still persists, two winners will be declared.

The Grand Prize

This isn't just about bragging rights!
The winner of the tournament will receive a unique Armchair Forecaster coffee mug (shown below). This 15 oz. mug* has been field tested by veteran coffee drinkers and proven to hold both hot and cold beverages! Nothing makes forecasting more enjoyable than a good mug of hot coffee or tea, and early studies indicate drinking from this mug while forecasting might improve concentration by up to 5%!** This item cannot be exchanged for cash value. The winning forecaster must have a valid email on file to receive the prize. Armchair Forecaster reserves the right to withhold the prize if the winner is suspected of unfair play.

*Lead and BPA free.
**Claims regarding improved concentration may or may not withstand scientific testing and should be interpreted as anecdotal based on previous drinkers' experiences while sipping hot liquids from this mug.