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Armchair Forecaster

See What's New:

3/16/2024: Important Scoring Update

Effective 3/17/2024 two new scoring rules apply for the forecasting tournament.

1) Hits are now scaled by their corresponding probability value (i.e. hits * (1.0 + probability value)). This adjustment is made to reward hits at higher probability thresholds, which the previous scoring formulation failed to properly account for.

2) Forecasters are required to submit a minimum number of forecasts (30) during the tournament period in order to be eligible to win. This rule is introduced in order to circumvent the potential of a last-minute entry winning the competition by submitting one particularly good forecast in the event that all other competitors have accumulated scores below 1.0. In effect, this means that May 1st, 2024 is the final day to sign up for the spring 2024 tournament.

More formal documentation of the updated scoring system and tournament rules can be found in the user guide and tournament pages. Thank you to all of the forecasters who gave feedback and pointed out these potential loop holes!


3/1/2024: Let the Games begin!

It's here! The 2024 Armchair Forecaster tournament has begun! Forecast your way to the top to earn the glory and the grand prize. Haven't signed up yet? It's not too late to join in sign up here to start forecasting. Want to see the latest stats? Check out the leaderboard to see who's currently on top. Need help finding weather data? The user guide has you covered with a plethora of resources. The contest runs until May 31, 2024 with a winner announced in early June 2024. Good luck!


2/10/24: Grand Prize Revealed!

The grand prize of the 2024 Armchair Forecaster tournament is here! This unique coffee mug has been field tested by veteran coffee drinkers and is guaranteed to hold both hot and cold beverages. Sign up today to compete and win the chalice of champions! More details can be found on the tournament site.


1/28/24: Forecast and Realtime Updates

Nobody asked for it, but we delivered it anyways! The realtime and forecast pages now feature looping NEXRAD composite reflectivity imagery as well as the latest images from all 16 GOES-East channels. The forecast page now features loop-able forecasts from the latest HRRR runs for precision forecasting! We've event tossed in some hot keys to expedite your forecasting. No need to thank us, instead thank everyone at IEM for all of the fantastic data, without which none of this is possible.


12/20/23: Let The Tournament Begin!

We are excited to announce the first ever Armchair Forecaster Tournament! Play for pride, bragging rights, and of course, a unique prize. The fun begins March 1st, 2024. In preparation for the tournament, a new scoring scheme will undergo live beta testing on this site during the months of December, January, and February. Check out the tournament site for more details regarding the competition, and the user guide for details regarding the new scoring system.


12/20/23: Notice to Returning Users:

As we test our new scoring system for the upcoming tournament, all users' daily and composite scores will be reset as of 12/21/23. Forecast calibration data will remain untouched. We apologize for this inconvenience.

Who Are We?

These days there is no shortage of social media experts when it comes to forecasting severe weather. But very few of them get the chance to actually demonstrate their skill on a daily basis. Likewise, there is a multitude of students and weather enthusiasts yearning for severe weather forecasting experience beyond classroom exercises and hand-drawn forecast maps.

Armchair Forecaster is here to change that! We are a free severe weather forecasting platform that allows everyone from professional meteorologists to weather enthusiasts try their hand at generating - and verifying - their own convective forecasts.

Create Your Forecast

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Based on SPC convective outlooks, Armchair forecasts focus on predicting the probability of tornadoes, severe hail, and severe and damaging winds across the contiguous United States each day through the entire year. Utilize our ever-growing library of forecasting resources to make the optimal severe weather forecast, or challenge yourself by using nothing more than satellite and surface observations. The forecast is yours!

Verify and Track your Skills

Forecast scores are calculated and archived daily based on real-life storm reports from the National Weather Service. Track your scores and watch your forecasting skills improve!

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Climb the Ranks, Wear the Jerseys!

Want to be #1? Beat out the competition by climbing the daily and all-time ranks on the Armchair Leaderboard. Earn the right to wear the forecaster jerseys, and let all others bask in the glow of your forecasting superiority!